Steve gave the second keynote at TMC Connect, and as one of the partners at DFJ (he is the “J”) which is one of the top VC firms in The Valley, and as one of the earliest a backers of Tesla Motors, his perspective was informed and profound.
He’s a fast speaker – I think his voice is trying to keep up with his brain! – and he knows his stuff for sure.
During his review of how technology has evolved he pointed our that Moore’s Law is not just applicable to transistor density on silicon ICs, it can be extrapolated back centuries to our early efforts in technology and forwards as we develop AI and expand our collective brain by adding the next 3 billion to the internet.
So if you like technological change, sit back and enjoy the show. On the other hand, if you want things to stay the same (auto industry for instance) then you are destined to be on the wrong side of history.
Then he focussed on EVs… Things don’t always change smoothly or in ways we can predict. Look at the stats for China:
The electric bicycle and motor bike is the most sold means of transport, and has been for several years. No one predicted this, but can you imagine what was the reason?…
The SARS outbreak of 2002!
People wanted to avoid going on public transport and as a result looked for alternatives. When they started to check things out they found that electric bikes were not just ways to avoid SARS or to gain freedom, but also cheaper than taking the bus!
And as Steve points out too, in this regulatory vacuum these electric motorbike manufacturers have started making electric bikes with roofs and 4 wheels 🙂
If Tesla have just given their patents away, and you are a thriving Chinese 4 wheel electric bike maker, what are the odds you start using Tesla tech in your EVs?
And when those EVs hit our markets at low cost….?