There have been a few articles about battery prices recently. (Especially here (GreenCarReports), but also here, and here). Some make reference to a Deutsche Bank graph showing their expectations for battery prices for the next 10 years – based on data from 2009, and later from 2010.
The first amazing thing is that their estimates dropped 30% in that single year (reflected in the above graph).
The second amazing thing is the reality of what Tesla has been paying in 2012 and 2013. Estimates range from the high of $400 to lower than $75, and real prices seem to be closer to the $75 figure in fact right now. To that price some pack costs need to be added (cooling system, control electronics, fire protection etc.) but the likely cost right now is about $140 per kWh ($12k for the 85kWh pack).
Plugging these values, plus the published cost of the Envia pack GM are looking at now ($125/kWh), into the graph and you get the above extrapolation for battery prices.
I used a log scale on price as that gave a straight trend line (often the case with technology trends such as Moore’s Law) which leads to the following observations:
- You can have a 1000km range EV with current battery tech at no extra cost by late 2014.
- By 2020 that same 1000km range pack will represent about the same cost as a good in-car-entertainment option on a current car (about $1.7k)
Conclusion: Battery prices are rapidly dropping and look to continue to drop to the point that the battery will be an unimportant additional component cost in a vehicle. All that before the end of this decade.
I love it!
Drive & Dream 